Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

XOM

269 historical chart-shape analogs of XOM as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.53

moderate

5d median

+0.54%

hit-rate 56%

5d IQR

[-1.92%, +2.10%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.28%, +4.86%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.42%

IQR

[-1.70%, +3.03%]

Hit-rate

55%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLI(negative)

importance 1.41

has_news=false(positive)

importance 1.11

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.04

How to read this

Consensus 0.53 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.28%, +4.86%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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