Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

XOM

260 historical chart-shape analogs of XOM as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.60

strong

5d median

+0.02%

hit-rate 50%

5d IQR

[-1.90%, +2.39%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.62%, +4.78%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.42%

IQR

[-2.65%, +4.64%]

Hit-rate

52%

Top 5-day features

pct_off_52w_low(negative)

importance 1.85

vol_regime=high(positive)

importance 1.61

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.38

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -1.9% to +5.9%

11 setups

+2.3%

64% up

Smooth sideways (+1.0%)

middle 50%: -1.6% to +2.8%

72 setups

+1.0%

55% up

Smooth sideways (+0.1%)

middle 50%: -1.5% to +2.4%

143 setups

+0.1%

52% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -4.7% to +0.7%

38 setups

-2.0%

32% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.60 is in the strong band — historical analogs of XOM's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.62%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.39%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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