Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

XOM

267 historical chart-shape analogs of XOM as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

-0.27%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-5.14%, +4.07%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.59%, +8.63%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.68%

IQR

[-5.36%, +5.02%]

Hit-rate

53%

Top 5-day features

broke_20d_range_low=false(positive)

importance 1.13

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.06

volume_z_today(positive)

importance 1.02

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -4.8% to +8.0%

28 setups

+4.2%

65% up

Smooth sideways (-0.1%)

middle 50%: -2.0% to +3.5%

95 setups

-0.1%

49% up

Smooth sideways (-1.6%)

middle 50%: -6.6% to +1.4%

73 setups

-1.6%

38% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -11.3% to -0.6%

12 setups

-6.1%

27% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into XOM.

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