Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
CVX
281 historical chart-shape analogs of CVX as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.61
strong
5d median
-0.33%
hit-rate 44%
5d IQR
[-2.55%, +1.68%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.24%, +4.28%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-1.10%
IQR
[-5.00%, +2.84%]
Hit-rate
43%
Top 5-day features
credit_spread_state=tight(negative)
importance 1.34
vol_regime=low(positive)
importance 1.10
macro_state=bearish(positive)
importance 0.91
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth sideways (+0.8%) (23% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.2% to +2.6%
+0.8%
59% up
Smooth sideways (-0.2%) (56% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.1% to +1.7%
-0.2%
46% up
Smooth downtrend (15% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.6% to -0.7%
-3.1%
16% up
Downtrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: -9.1% to -3.0%
-8.3%
0% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.61 is in the strong band — historical analogs of CVX's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-5.24%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.68%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open CVX in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
GILD
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.82%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:33:01.710760+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (4297ms retrieval at build time).