Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

CVX

252 historical chart-shape analogs of CVX as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.27

weak

5d median

+0.15%

hit-rate 51%

5d IQR

[-2.82%, +2.79%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.95%, +7.21%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.78%

IQR

[-3.42%, +4.47%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLI(negative)

importance 1.40

vol_regime=high(positive)

importance 0.87

sector_etf=XLE(positive)

importance 0.86

How to read this

Consensus 0.27 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into CVX.

Live cohort

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