Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

CVX

279 historical chart-shape analogs of CVX as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.38

moderate

5d median

+0.74%

hit-rate 60%

5d IQR

[-1.28%, +2.80%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.98%, +6.02%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.94%

IQR

[-1.99%, +3.62%]

Hit-rate

57%

Top 5-day features

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.03

broke_50d_low=false(negative)

importance 0.97

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 0.88

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.8% to +7.7%

36 setups

+4.2%

88% up

Smooth sideways (+0.8%)

middle 50%: -0.7% to +2.4%

168 setups

+0.8%

62% up

Smooth sideways (-0.5%)

middle 50%: -2.9% to +2.2%

81 setups

-0.5%

45% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -14.1% to -5.9%

5 setups

-6.1%

20% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.38 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.98%, +6.02%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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