Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
MS
287 historical chart-shape analogs of MS as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.25
weak
5d median
+1.30%
hit-rate 60%
5d IQR
[-1.92%, +5.18%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.22%, +11.96%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+2.72%
IQR
[-0.71%, +7.49%]
Hit-rate
72%
Top 5-day features
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 1.23
hy_oas(negative)
importance 1.12
pct_off_ath(negative)
importance 0.94
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Sharp uptrend (3% of pool)
middle 50%: +13.8% to +21.7%
+15.7%
90% up
Uptrend (29% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.8% to +7.3%
+2.5%
70% up
Smooth sideways (53% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.9% to +3.3%
+0.6%
56% up
Downtrend (11% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.1% to +5.0%
+0.0%
48% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.25 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MS.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MS in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:33:04.669353+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6490ms retrieval at build time).