Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

MS

284 historical chart-shape analogs of MS as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.62

strong

5d median

-0.22%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-2.59%, +2.14%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.16%, +4.43%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.41%

IQR

[-3.81%, +2.77%]

Hit-rate

45%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=normal(positive)

importance 1.13

macro_state=bearish(negative)

importance 0.99

yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)

importance 0.86

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.8% to +5.5%

41 setups

+3.0%

83% up

Smooth sideways (+0.1%)

middle 50%: -2.0% to +1.6%

142 setups

+0.1%

52% up

Smooth sideways (-2.0%)

middle 50%: -3.8% to +0.4%

76 setups

-2.0%

26% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -4.4% to +2.4%

25 setups

-2.9%

32% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.62 is in the strong band — historical analogs of MS's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-5.16%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.14%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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