Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

MS

288 historical chart-shape analogs of MS as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.70

strong

5d median

+1.01%

hit-rate 64%

5d IQR

[-0.92%, +2.92%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-3.16%, +4.92%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.73%

IQR

[-0.84%, +4.46%]

Hit-rate

68%

Top 5-day features

relative_volume(negative)

importance 1.22

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 0.97

range_compression_z(positive)

importance 0.91

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways (+2.3%)

middle 50%: +0.5% to +4.4%

85 setups

+2.3%

80% up

Smooth sideways (+0.5%)

middle 50%: -1.0% to +2.2%

139 setups

+0.5%

58% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -3.2% to +1.5%

45 setups

-0.9%

40% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.70 is in the strong band — historical analogs of MS's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-3.16%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.92%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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