Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
MS
275 historical chart-shape analogs of MS as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.53
moderate
5d median
+0.66%
hit-rate 61%
5d IQR
[-1.24%, +2.74%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-4.03%, +4.37%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.65%
IQR
[-1.48%, +3.77%]
Hit-rate
59%
Top 5-day features
sector_rs_60d(negative)
importance 1.74
vol_regime=high(positive)
importance 1.29
credit_spread_state=normal(positive)
importance 1.18
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth sideways (+2.1%) (25% of pool)
middle 50%: +0.4% to +3.7%
+2.1%
82% up
Smooth sideways (+0.3%) (62% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.2% to +2.1%
+0.3%
57% up
Smooth downtrend (8% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.8% to -1.0%
-3.5%
21% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.53 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.03%, +4.37%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MS in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
GILD
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.82%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:32:41.035224+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (5058ms retrieval at build time).