Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

MS

260 historical chart-shape analogs of MS as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.59

strong

5d median

+0.56%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-2.01%, +2.84%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.75%, +4.65%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.56%

IQR

[-2.75%, +3.55%]

Hit-rate

56%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLB(negative)

importance 1.90

opex_week=false(negative)

importance 1.17

credit_spread_state=normal(positive)

importance 1.13

How to read this

Consensus 0.59 is in the strong band — historical analogs of MS's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.75%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.84%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live cohort

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-anchor feature attribution:

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