Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

ABNB

264 historical chart-shape analogs of ABNB as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.60

strong

5d median

-0.09%

hit-rate 49%

5d IQR

[-2.87%, +1.86%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.54%, +4.20%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.06%

IQR

[-3.01%, +2.55%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

pct_off_ath(positive)

importance 1.21

relative_volume(negative)

importance 0.83

broke_50d_high=false(positive)

importance 0.80

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -0.2% to +4.5%

46 setups

+2.3%

74% up

Smooth sideways (+0.2%)

middle 50%: -2.2% to +1.4%

117 setups

+0.2%

54% up

Smooth sideways (-1.4%)

middle 50%: -4.0% to +0.9%

84 setups

-1.4%

39% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -5.7% to -2.5%

19 setups

-4.1%

12% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.60 is in the strong band — historical analogs of ABNB's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-5.54%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.86%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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