Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

ABNB

264 historical chart-shape analogs of ABNB as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.52

moderate

5d median

+0.00%

hit-rate 50%

5d IQR

[-2.39%, +3.34%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.33%, +7.01%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.20%

IQR

[-2.97%, +4.76%]

Hit-rate

57%

Top 5-day features

broke_ath=false(positive)

importance 1.27

pct_off_52w_low(positive)

importance 1.25

vrp(negative)

importance 1.15

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +0.7% to +8.3%

20 setups

+4.0%

79% up

Smooth sideways (+1.4%)

middle 50%: -1.5% to +3.7%

109 setups

+1.4%

65% up

Smooth sideways (-0.4%)

middle 50%: -2.2% to +2.2%

120 setups

-0.4%

42% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -4.8% to -0.6%

37 setups

-2.5%

15% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.52 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.33%, +7.01%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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