Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

VRTX

246 historical chart-shape analogs of VRTX as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.59

strong

5d median

+0.50%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-2.12%, +3.05%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.87%, +5.17%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.10%

IQR

[-3.93%, +4.28%]

Hit-rate

50%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 2.00

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 1.00

vol_regime=low(negative)

importance 0.85

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.8% to +5.0%

52 setups

+2.7%

80% up

Smooth sideways (+0.5%)

middle 50%: -1.6% to +2.8%

121 setups

+0.5%

57% up

Smooth sideways (-1.3%)

middle 50%: -3.8% to +1.8%

83 setups

-1.3%

36% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.59 is in the strong band — historical analogs of VRTX's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.87%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+3.05%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live comp set

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