Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

VRTX

289 historical chart-shape analogs of VRTX as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.57

strong

5d median

+0.26%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-2.50%, +3.08%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.22%, +5.83%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.27%

IQR

[-3.54%, +4.37%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

broke_ath=false(negative)

importance 1.34

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 0.88

broke_50d_high=false(positive)

importance 0.82

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.1% to +4.8%

88 setups

+2.6%

77% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -2.5% to +2.3%

161 setups

-0.4%

46% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -5.5% to +0.7%

39 setups

-3.2%

31% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.57 is in the strong band — historical analogs of VRTX's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-6.22%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+3.08%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live comp set

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