Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
C
285 historical chart-shape analogs of C as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.65
strong
5d median
+0.35%
hit-rate 56%
5d IQR
[-1.91%, +2.52%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-4.97%, +4.52%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.70%
IQR
[-3.08%, +3.28%]
Hit-rate
57%
Top 5-day features
qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)
importance 1.42
vrp(positive)
importance 1.24
yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)
importance 1.13
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (17% of pool)
middle 50%: +0.4% to +4.7%
+2.8%
80% up
Smooth sideways (+0.5%) (34% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.3% to +2.4%
+0.5%
59% up
Smooth sideways (+0.2%) (32% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.9% to +1.9%
+0.2%
53% up
Smooth downtrend (13% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.5% to +0.1%
-2.4%
26% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.65 is in the strong band — historical analogs of C's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.97%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.52%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open C in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
TGT
consensus 0.50 · 5d +0.29%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:33:10.103609+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (5070ms retrieval at build time).