Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

C

282 historical chart-shape analogs of C as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.53

moderate

5d median

+0.57%

hit-rate 58%

5d IQR

[-1.59%, +2.69%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.32%, +4.11%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.80%

IQR

[-2.18%, +3.95%]

Hit-rate

58%

Top 5-day features

vix(negative)

importance 1.66

yield_curve(positive)

importance 1.24

vix_term_structure(negative)

importance 0.98

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.1% to +4.0%

60 setups

+2.6%

75% up

Smooth sideways (+0.7%)

middle 50%: -1.3% to +2.5%

142 setups

+0.7%

58% up

Smooth sideways (-0.2%)

middle 50%: -2.0% to +1.1%

82 setups

-0.2%

48% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -42.8% to -23.1%

3 setups

-39.4%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.53 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.32%, +4.11%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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