Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

PFE

288 historical chart-shape analogs of PFE as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.61

strong

5d median

+0.42%

hit-rate 56%

5d IQR

[-1.40%, +2.60%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-3.32%, +4.75%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.95%

IQR

[-2.03%, +4.41%]

Hit-rate

62%

Top 5-day features

volume_acceleration_5d(negative)

importance 1.07

yield_curve(positive)

importance 0.95

has_news=false(positive)

importance 0.72

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.7% to +5.9%

34 setups

+3.4%

82% up

Smooth sideways (+1.0%)

middle 50%: -0.6% to +3.0%

134 setups

+1.0%

66% up

Smooth sideways (-0.5%)

middle 50%: -2.1% to +1.4%

103 setups

-0.5%

38% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -6.7% to -0.4%

17 setups

-1.5%

24% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.61 is in the strong band — historical analogs of PFE's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-3.32%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.60%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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