Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

PFE

263 historical chart-shape analogs of PFE as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.48

moderate

5d median

+0.73%

hit-rate 59%

5d IQR

[-1.81%, +2.39%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.09%, +5.32%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.04%

IQR

[-2.63%, +3.83%]

Hit-rate

55%

Top 5-day features

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 1.21

sector_etf=XLK(negative)

importance 1.13

realized_vol_20d(positive)

importance 0.76

How to read this

Consensus 0.48 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.09%, +5.32%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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