Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

JD

273 historical chart-shape analogs of JD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.53

moderate

5d median

-0.49%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-2.61%, +2.35%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.14%, +5.47%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.49%

IQR

[-3.91%, +3.57%]

Hit-rate

46%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 0.98

month_of_year(negative)

importance 0.80

broke_20d_range_low=false(negative)

importance 0.80

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -1.6% to +5.1%

19 setups

+1.6%

56% up

Smooth sideways (+0.4%)

middle 50%: -1.7% to +3.3%

123 setups

+0.4%

54% up

Smooth sideways (-0.8%)

middle 50%: -3.0% to +1.1%

121 setups

-0.8%

44% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.0% to -0.6%

20 setups

-3.8%

20% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.53 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.14%, +5.47%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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