Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
JD
277 historical chart-shape analogs of JD as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.29
weak
5d median
+0.44%
hit-rate 52%
5d IQR
[-3.50%, +3.65%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-9.15%, +8.43%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+1.05%
IQR
[-3.59%, +6.42%]
Hit-rate
55%
Top 5-day features
vol_regime=high(positive)
importance 1.35
credit_spread_state=tight(positive)
importance 1.06
realized_vol_20d(positive)
importance 1.04
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Sharp choppy uptrend (1% of pool)
middle 50%: +8.3% to +17.8%
+10.0%
100% up
Smooth uptrend (20% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.9% to +7.2%
+3.5%
68% up
Smooth sideways (65% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.5% to +2.4%
-0.0%
50% up
Downtrend (10% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.9% to -0.3%
-3.8%
25% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.29 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into JD.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open JD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:40.625692+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6057ms retrieval at build time).