Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

DIS

280 historical chart-shape analogs of DIS as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.68

strong

5d median

+0.20%

hit-rate 53%

5d IQR

[-1.93%, +1.65%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.16%, +3.48%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.48%

IQR

[-2.05%, +2.76%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.17

vix(positive)

importance 0.80

qqq_minus_spy_60d(positive)

importance 0.77

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -0.8% to +3.6%

36 setups

+1.6%

64% up

Smooth sideways (+0.8%)

middle 50%: -1.1% to +1.9%

123 setups

+0.8%

64% up

Smooth sideways (-0.3%)

middle 50%: -2.1% to +1.0%

101 setups

-0.3%

44% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -5.0% to -0.6%

25 setups

-4.0%

13% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.68 is in the strong band — historical analogs of DIS's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.16%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.65%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open DIS in Chart Library →