Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

LLY

290 historical chart-shape analogs of LLY as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.51

moderate

5d median

-0.12%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-2.91%, +3.43%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.69%, +6.95%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.72%

IQR

[-3.29%, +4.27%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

volume_acceleration_5d(negative)

importance 0.99

relative_volume(positive)

importance 0.98

macro_state=bearish(negative)

importance 0.95

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -1.9% to +5.5%

71 setups

+2.2%

61% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -2.8% to +2.9%

144 setups

-0.1%

47% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -4.2% to +1.3%

72 setups

-1.1%

36% up

Sharp downtrend

middle 50%: -10.1% to -0.7%

3 setups

-2.1%

33% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.51 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.69%, +6.95%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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