Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
LLY
113 historical chart-shape analogs of LLY as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.40
moderate
5d median
+0.31%
hit-rate 52%
5d IQR
[-4.13%, +2.84%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-10.22%, +4.94%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.92%
IQR
[-7.09%, +4.10%]
Hit-rate
57%
Top 5-day features
credit_spread_state=tight(positive)
importance 1.06
spy_ret_20d(positive)
importance 0.98
yield_curve(positive)
importance 0.83
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (9% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.3% to +3.6%
+1.7%
70% up
Smooth sideways (22% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.0% to +2.9%
+0.8%
57% up
Smooth downtrend (7% of pool)
middle 50%: -12.7% to -1.4%
-4.8%
16% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.40 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-10.22%, +4.94%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open LLY in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:33:23.615405+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (3477ms retrieval at build time).