Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
LLY
285 historical chart-shape analogs of LLY as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.51
moderate
5d median
+0.15%
hit-rate 51%
5d IQR
[-2.75%, +2.73%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-6.41%, +5.41%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.93%
IQR
[-3.49%, +4.37%]
Hit-rate
57%
Top 5-day features
credit_spread_state=tight(positive)
importance 1.15
range_expansion_z(negative)
importance 0.79
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 0.76
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (20% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.4% to +4.8%
+1.3%
58% up
Smooth sideways (53% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.8% to +2.7%
+0.8%
57% up
Smooth downtrend (24% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.6% to +0.6%
-2.2%
33% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.51 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.41%, +5.41%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open LLY in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
TGT
consensus 0.50 · 5d +0.29%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:33:47.826916+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (3493ms retrieval at build time).