Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

LLY

280 historical chart-shape analogs of LLY as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.35

moderate

5d median

-0.06%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-2.50%, +3.30%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.39%, +8.03%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.02%

IQR

[-3.73%, +4.73%]

Hit-rate

50%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLU(negative)

importance 2.23

sector_etf=XLP(positive)

importance 0.78

sector_etf=XLV(negative)

importance 0.62

How to read this

Consensus 0.35 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.39%, +8.03%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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