Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

LLY

289 historical chart-shape analogs of LLY as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.59

strong

5d median

+0.30%

hit-rate 53%

5d IQR

[-2.82%, +2.73%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.50%, +4.72%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.15%

IQR

[-3.63%, +3.82%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(positive)

importance 1.44

pct_off_ath(negative)

importance 1.20

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 0.82

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -0.8% to +4.9%

16 setups

+2.0%

69% up

Smooth sideways (+0.0%)

middle 50%: -1.8% to +2.7%

84 setups

+0.0%

51% up

Smooth sideways (-1.3%)

middle 50%: -3.9% to +2.4%

43 setups

-1.3%

40% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.59 is in the strong band — historical analogs of LLY's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-5.50%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.73%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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