Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

LOW

267 historical chart-shape analogs of LOW as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.51

moderate

5d median

-0.37%

hit-rate 46%

5d IQR

[-3.45%, +1.93%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.48%, +4.25%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.42%

IQR

[-6.25%, +2.58%]

Hit-rate

39%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLI(positive)

importance 1.35

vix_term_structure(positive)

importance 1.15

macro_state=bearish(negative)

importance 1.05

How to read this

Consensus 0.51 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.48%, +4.25%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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