Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
LOW
283 historical chart-shape analogs of LOW as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.48
moderate
5d median
+0.01%
hit-rate 50%
5d IQR
[-2.53%, +2.34%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-6.48%, +5.53%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-0.84%
IQR
[-4.57%, +2.93%]
Hit-rate
44%
Top 5-day features
spy_ret_20d(negative)
importance 1.04
yield_curve_state=inverted(negative)
importance 0.99
vix(negative)
importance 0.96
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (18% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.2% to +4.8%
+1.8%
73% up
Smooth sideways (67% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.1% to +1.9%
-0.1%
49% up
Smooth downtrend (11% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.4% to +0.9%
-3.2%
26% up
Sharp downtrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.5% to -3.8%
-4.6%
20% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.48 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.48%, +5.53%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open LOW in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
GILD
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.82%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:34:01.297728+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6156ms retrieval at build time).