Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

GILD

286 historical chart-shape analogs of GILD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.69

strong

5d median

+0.66%

hit-rate 61%

5d IQR

[-1.25%, +2.44%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-3.17%, +4.09%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.01%

IQR

[-2.31%, +3.72%]

Hit-rate

60%

Top 5-day features

yield_curve(positive)

importance 1.11

hy_oas(positive)

importance 0.91

macro_state=bullish(positive)

importance 0.91

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.6% to +4.4%

66 setups

+2.1%

79% up

Smooth sideways (+0.5%)

middle 50%: -0.8% to +2.0%

146 setups

+0.5%

62% up

Smooth sideways (-1.0%)

middle 50%: -3.0% to +1.9%

73 setups

-1.0%

44% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.69 is in the strong band — historical analogs of GILD's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-3.17%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.44%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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