Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

GILD

249 historical chart-shape analogs of GILD as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.60

strong

5d median

+0.15%

hit-rate 52%

5d IQR

[-2.24%, +2.96%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.39%, +5.13%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.68%

IQR

[-2.67%, +3.59%]

Hit-rate

53%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLF(positive)

importance 1.48

sector_etf=XLU(positive)

importance 1.26

vol_regime=low(negative)

importance 1.16

How to read this

Consensus 0.60 is in the strong band — historical analogs of GILD's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.39%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.96%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live cohort

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