Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

BAC

282 historical chart-shape analogs of BAC as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.54

moderate

5d median

+0.67%

hit-rate 58%

5d IQR

[-1.62%, +3.49%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-3.86%, +6.07%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.91%

IQR

[-2.61%, +4.60%]

Hit-rate

60%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(positive)

importance 0.74

hy_oas(positive)

importance 0.73

rs_in_sector_rank(positive)

importance 0.70

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +2.3% to +6.8%

33 setups

+4.9%

85% up

Smooth sideways (+1.1%)

middle 50%: -0.7% to +3.5%

126 setups

+1.1%

68% up

Smooth sideways (-0.6%)

middle 50%: -2.6% to +1.4%

114 setups

-0.6%

42% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -3.3% to +3.4%

18 setups

-0.6%

39% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.54 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-3.86%, +6.07%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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