Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
WMT
282 historical chart-shape analogs of WMT as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.42
moderate
5d median
+0.55%
hit-rate 56%
5d IQR
[-2.03%, +3.27%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.78%, +8.12%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+1.59%
IQR
[-2.59%, +6.39%]
Hit-rate
61%
Top 5-day features
month_of_year(positive)
importance 0.90
spy_ret_60d(negative)
importance 0.89
broke_20d_range_high=false(negative)
importance 0.80
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (13% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.6% to +7.0%
+2.9%
69% up
Smooth sideways (+0.9%) (51% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.7% to +3.3%
+0.9%
61% up
Smooth sideways (-0.5%) (31% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.5% to +1.8%
-0.5%
45% up
Sharp downtrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: -13.0% to -0.8%
-8.7%
29% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.42 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.78%, +8.12%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open WMT in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:09.497832+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (2798ms retrieval at build time).