Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

WMT

286 historical chart-shape analogs of WMT as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.43

moderate

5d median

+0.51%

hit-rate 55%

5d IQR

[-2.78%, +3.90%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.39%, +7.55%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.39%

IQR

[-4.18%, +5.62%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 1.66

vix(negative)

importance 1.26

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.06

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +2.0% to +8.0%

16 setups

+4.8%

81% up

Smooth sideways (+1.4%)

middle 50%: -1.3% to +5.5%

109 setups

+1.4%

68% up

Smooth sideways (-0.6%)

middle 50%: -3.1% to +3.1%

127 setups

-0.6%

48% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -5.4% to +2.0%

33 setups

-3.2%

27% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.43 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.39%, +7.55%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open WMT in Chart Library →