Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

WMT

281 historical chart-shape analogs of WMT as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.43

moderate

5d median

+0.03%

hit-rate 50%

5d IQR

[-2.62%, +3.59%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.29%, +7.01%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.03%

IQR

[-3.81%, +3.97%]

Hit-rate

50%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 1.47

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 1.28

pct_off_52w_low(negative)

importance 1.08

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -0.6% to +7.1%

32 setups

+3.6%

71% up

Smooth sideways (+0.7%)

middle 50%: -1.3% to +3.9%

110 setups

+0.7%

61% up

Smooth sideways (-0.5%)

middle 50%: -2.5% to +2.4%

115 setups

-0.5%

43% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -10.0% to -1.6%

31 setups

-5.2%

17% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.43 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.29%, +7.01%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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