Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

VST

274 historical chart-shape analogs of VST as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

-0.37%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-5.69%, +5.94%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.99%, +13.51%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.46%

IQR

[-6.74%, +9.99%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 1.47

news_count_5d(negative)

importance 1.05

pct_off_ath(negative)

importance 0.83

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +0.1% to +14.3%

61 setups

+4.4%

74% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -5.1% to +5.5%

157 setups

-0.6%

46% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -11.2% to +0.0%

65 setups

-4.8%

25% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into VST.

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