Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

VST

281 historical chart-shape analogs of VST as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.20

weak

5d median

-0.50%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-5.63%, +4.50%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-12.19%, +9.73%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.03%

IQR

[-8.10%, +5.03%]

Hit-rate

43%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 1.60

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 1.29

opex_week=false(positive)

importance 0.96

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -8.2% to +3.1%

37 setups

+0.3%

54% up

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -2.5% to +6.4%

14 setups

-0.1%

50% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -10.4% to +0.3%

16 setups

-3.9%

25% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.20 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into VST.

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