Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

TTD

258 historical chart-shape analogs of TTD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.09

weak

5d median

-0.29%

hit-rate 49%

5d IQR

[-4.27%, +3.95%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.94%, +8.50%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.03%

IQR

[-4.62%, +6.48%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.96

vol_regime=low(negative)

importance 0.91

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 0.86

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.0% to +14.3%

17 setups

+8.2%

69% up

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -1.8% to +4.3%

90 setups

+1.5%

62% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.8% to +3.0%

128 setups

-0.2%

49% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.6% to -1.6%

48 setups

-5.5%

20% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.09 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into TTD.

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