Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

TTD

248 historical chart-shape analogs of TTD as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.31

moderate

5d median

-1.65%

hit-rate 42%

5d IQR

[-5.92%, +3.07%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.49%, +6.33%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.58%

IQR

[-7.87%, +5.20%]

Hit-rate

43%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.44

opex_week=false(positive)

importance 1.34

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 1.15

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 2 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -3.3% to +4.3%

58 setups

+1.4%

63% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -6.3% to +1.1%

133 setups

-2.6%

31% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.31 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-10.49%, +6.33%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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