Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

TSLA

269 historical chart-shape analogs of TSLA as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.29

weak

5d median

-1.89%

hit-rate 39%

5d IQR

[-6.61%, +2.14%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.44%, +4.80%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.47%

IQR

[-8.19%, +2.33%]

Hit-rate

35%

Top 5-day features

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 0.94

pct_off_52w_low(positive)

importance 0.70

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 0.68

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.8% to +5.9%

30 setups

+0.4%

50% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -5.1% to +2.3%

159 setups

-0.8%

45% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.3% to +0.3%

16 setups

-2.9%

33% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -8.5% to +0.1%

78 setups

-4.5%

26% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.29 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into TSLA.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open TSLA in Chart Library →