Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

TSLA

282 historical chart-shape analogs of TSLA as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.52

moderate

5d median

+0.12%

hit-rate 51%

5d IQR

[-3.13%, +3.23%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.84%, +6.65%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.28%

IQR

[-5.20%, +4.19%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 0.91

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 0.88

days_since_ath(positive)

importance 0.88

How to read this

Consensus 0.52 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.84%, +6.65%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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