Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

TSLA

263 historical chart-shape analogs of TSLA as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.20

weak

5d median

+1.44%

hit-rate 62%

5d IQR

[-2.40%, +4.27%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.29%, +9.99%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+2.75%

IQR

[-3.60%, +6.83%]

Hit-rate

63%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.28

month_of_year(positive)

importance 1.23

has_news=false(negative)

importance 1.09

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp uptrend

middle 50%: +3.5% to +17.7%

15 setups

+10.6%

86% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -1.7% to +4.8%

167 setups

+1.6%

65% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.4% to +1.9%

61 setups

-3.2%

37% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.20 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into TSLA.

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