Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
TSLA
270 historical chart-shape analogs of TSLA as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.00
weak
5d median
-1.92%
hit-rate 42%
5d IQR
[-9.09%, +4.98%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-17.58%, +12.73%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-4.01%
IQR
[-13.40%, +5.58%]
Hit-rate
39%
Top 5-day features
yield_curve(positive)
importance 1.55
sector_rs_60d(negative)
importance 1.39
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.21
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Sharp choppy uptrend (8% of pool)
middle 50%: +6.3% to +23.1%
+11.5%
86% up
Uptrend (28% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.2% to +6.7%
-0.6%
47% up
Sideways (39% of pool)
middle 50%: -7.8% to +2.7%
-2.1%
40% up
Downtrend (20% of pool)
middle 50%: -16.6% to -0.5%
-9.1%
23% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into TSLA.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open TSLA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:30:55.945303+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (3929ms retrieval at build time).