Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
TSLA
261 historical chart-shape analogs of TSLA as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.14
weak
5d median
-0.22%
hit-rate 48%
5d IQR
[-4.33%, +4.16%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-10.72%, +12.28%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-0.29%
IQR
[-6.01%, +5.93%]
Hit-rate
48%
Top 5-day features
yield_curve_state=normal(negative)
importance 0.84
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 0.77
realized_vol_20d(negative)
importance 0.69
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Sharp choppy uptrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: +12.5% to +22.5%
+19.6%
100% up
Uptrend (32% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.4% to +8.7%
+2.1%
64% up
Smooth sideways (48% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.2% to +1.7%
-0.8%
42% up
Downtrend (13% of pool)
middle 50%: -13.4% to +1.2%
-3.4%
29% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.14 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into TSLA.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open TSLA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:30:45.217702+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6812ms retrieval at build time).