Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
TGT
292 historical chart-shape analogs of TGT as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.50
moderate
5d median
+0.29%
hit-rate 53%
5d IQR
[-1.81%, +2.46%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.41%, +5.26%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.66%
IQR
[-2.80%, +3.41%]
Hit-rate
57%
Top 5-day features
days_since_ath(negative)
importance 1.08
vix_term_structure(negative)
importance 0.89
range_expansion_z(negative)
importance 0.85
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (11% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.2% to +7.3%
+4.2%
72% up
Smooth sideways (54% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.7% to +2.1%
+0.3%
54% up
Downtrend (19% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.0% to +0.1%
-2.0%
28% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.50 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.41%, +5.26%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open TGT in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:14.367877+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (4507ms retrieval at build time).