Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

TGT

111 historical chart-shape analogs of TGT as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.26

weak

5d median

-0.28%

hit-rate 41%

5d IQR

[-3.44%, +1.29%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.08%, +3.10%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.15%

IQR

[-4.54%, +1.15%]

Hit-rate

34%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 1.39

qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)

importance 1.34

pct_off_52w_low(negative)

importance 1.14

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways (+0.2%)

middle 50%: -2.0% to +2.6%

36 setups

+0.2%

53% up

Smooth sideways (-0.3%)

middle 50%: -1.7% to +1.2%

53 setups

-0.3%

43% up

Smooth sideways (-3.4%)

middle 50%: -4.4% to -1.0%

16 setups

-3.4%

25% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -4.0% to -2.3%

5 setups

-3.5%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.26 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into TGT.

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