Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

TGT

279 historical chart-shape analogs of TGT as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.68

strong

5d median

-0.27%

hit-rate 44%

5d IQR

[-2.25%, +1.43%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.30%, +3.73%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.52%

IQR

[-3.55%, +1.61%]

Hit-rate

36%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLF(negative)

importance 1.62

sector_etf=XLU(negative)

importance 1.19

credit_spread_state=normal(positive)

importance 0.89

How to read this

Consensus 0.68 is in the strong band — historical analogs of TGT's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.30%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.43%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live cohort

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-anchor feature attribution:

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