Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
TGT
289 historical chart-shape analogs of TGT as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.36
moderate
5d median
+0.49%
hit-rate 55%
5d IQR
[-2.80%, +5.22%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-7.08%, +9.49%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+1.14%
IQR
[-3.16%, +7.54%]
Hit-rate
59%
Top 5-day features
realized_vol_20d(negative)
importance 1.28
vol_regime=high(positive)
importance 1.08
momentum_20d(negative)
importance 1.04
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Choppy uptrend (6% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.2% to +12.3%
+6.8%
71% up
Smooth uptrend (29% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.9% to +7.3%
+2.3%
65% up
Smooth sideways (46% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.3% to +3.5%
+0.3%
55% up
Downtrend (17% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.9% to +1.3%
-2.2%
35% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.36 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.08%, +9.49%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open TGT in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:33:50.579506+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (2880ms retrieval at build time).