Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

TGT

291 historical chart-shape analogs of TGT as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.75

strong

5d median

-0.01%

hit-rate 49%

5d IQR

[-1.26%, +1.83%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-2.70%, +3.68%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.24%

IQR

[-1.38%, +2.57%]

Hit-rate

53%

Top 5-day features

broke_ath=false(negative)

importance 1.13

qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)

importance 0.89

yield_curve_state=normal(positive)

importance 0.89

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways (+2.5%)

middle 50%: -0.2% to +5.1%

34 setups

+2.5%

68% up

Smooth sideways (+0.2%)

middle 50%: -0.8% to +2.6%

98 setups

+0.2%

54% up

Smooth sideways (-0.5%)

middle 50%: -1.8% to +0.3%

71 setups

-0.5%

32% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -3.5% to +0.3%

11 setups

-2.3%

27% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.75 is in the strong band — historical analogs of TGT's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-2.70%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.83%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

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