Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

SNOW

261 historical chart-shape analogs of SNOW as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.33

moderate

5d median

+0.43%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-3.08%, +4.17%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.55%, +8.74%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.43%

IQR

[-3.47%, +6.12%]

Hit-rate

53%

Top 5-day features

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 1.26

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 0.88

broke_ath=false(negative)

importance 0.79

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -2.7% to +9.1%

25 setups

+4.0%

68% up

Smooth sideways (+2.9%)

middle 50%: -0.9% to +5.5%

91 setups

+2.9%

71% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -5.9% to +1.5%

31 setups

-0.8%

42% up

Smooth sideways (-0.8%)

middle 50%: -4.9% to +2.4%

114 setups

-0.8%

41% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.33 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.55%, +8.74%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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