Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

SNOW

256 historical chart-shape analogs of SNOW as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.16

weak

5d median

+1.56%

hit-rate 57%

5d IQR

[-2.83%, +6.38%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.00%, +10.16%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.88%

IQR

[-5.05%, +8.70%]

Hit-rate

60%

Top 5-day features

cross_sectional_momentum_rank(negative)

importance 1.71

rs_in_sector_rank(positive)

importance 1.16

has_news=false(negative)

importance 1.16

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -0.6% to +9.0%

30 setups

+6.2%

72% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.2% to +4.0%

91 setups

+1.0%

52% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -5.2% to +5.1%

55 setups

-1.2%

43% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -12.7% to -0.1%

11 setups

-2.2%

27% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.16 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into SNOW.

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