Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

SBUX

271 historical chart-shape analogs of SBUX as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.46

moderate

5d median

-0.44%

hit-rate 45%

5d IQR

[-3.20%, +2.05%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.90%, +6.14%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.62%

IQR

[-5.06%, +3.26%]

Hit-rate

38%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLRE(positive)

importance 1.17

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.16

sector_etf=XLE(positive)

importance 1.01

How to read this

Consensus 0.46 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.90%, +6.14%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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