Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

SBUX

289 historical chart-shape analogs of SBUX as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.42

moderate

5d median

-0.65%

hit-rate 42%

5d IQR

[-3.37%, +2.43%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.97%, +4.83%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.30%

IQR

[-6.39%, +3.65%]

Hit-rate

41%

Top 5-day features

vix(positive)

importance 1.20

broke_50d_low=false(negative)

importance 1.00

yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)

importance 0.78

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -2.3% to +3.6%

58 setups

+1.4%

54% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.0% to +1.7%

196 setups

-0.6%

40% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.9% to -0.3%

36 setups

-3.1%

25% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.42 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.97%, +4.83%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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