Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
PDD
281 historical chart-shape analogs of PDD as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.54
moderate
5d median
-0.13%
hit-rate 48%
5d IQR
[-3.23%, +2.81%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.99%, +5.55%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-0.00%
IQR
[-4.15%, +5.12%]
Hit-rate
50%
Top 5-day features
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.32
yield_curve(negative)
importance 0.95
yield_curve_state=flat(positive)
importance 0.88
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (5% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.1% to +8.0%
+2.8%
73% up
Smooth sideways (+0.6%) (24% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.3% to +4.4%
+0.6%
54% up
Smooth sideways (-0.1%) (44% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.1% to +2.1%
-0.1%
47% up
Downtrend (16% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.5% to -0.4%
-3.5%
17% up
Was this useful?
How to read this
Consensus 0.54 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.99%, +5.55%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open PDD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
GILD
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.82%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:34:22.600812+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (2311ms retrieval at build time).