Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

PDD

262 historical chart-shape analogs of PDD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.03

weak

5d median

-2.81%

hit-rate 39%

5d IQR

[-8.74%, +3.35%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-15.40%, +10.44%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-3.24%

IQR

[-11.62%, +4.62%]

Hit-rate

38%

Top 5-day features

spy_ret_20d(positive)

importance 1.04

broke_50d_low=false(negative)

importance 0.94

yield_curve(negative)

importance 0.79

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -0.3% to +12.3%

27 setups

+3.1%

75% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -8.5% to +4.9%

129 setups

-0.7%

45% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.8% to +1.2%

103 setups

-3.9%

30% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -14.5% to -4.6%

23 setups

-11.6%

10% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.03 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into PDD.

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