Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
PDD
288 historical chart-shape analogs of PDD as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.49
moderate
5d median
+0.33%
hit-rate 53%
5d IQR
[-3.21%, +3.05%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-6.52%, +6.15%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-0.13%
IQR
[-4.28%, +4.98%]
Hit-rate
48%
Top 5-day features
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 0.96
qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)
importance 0.89
realized_vol_20d(negative)
importance 0.80
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth sideways (+1.9%) (25% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.4% to +5.6%
+1.9%
66% up
Uptrend (5% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.1% to +4.9%
+1.9%
69% up
Smooth sideways (-0.3%) (48% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.9% to +1.8%
-0.3%
46% up
Downtrend (12% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.9% to +0.0%
-2.7%
26% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.49 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.52%, +6.15%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open PDD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:43.572374+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (2588ms retrieval at build time).