Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

PDD

286 historical chart-shape analogs of PDD as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.21

weak

5d median

-1.65%

hit-rate 37%

5d IQR

[-5.87%, +1.95%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.57%, +6.21%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-3.66%

IQR

[-9.51%, +2.03%]

Hit-rate

32%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=tight(negative)

importance 1.41

has_news=false(positive)

importance 0.85

yield_curve(positive)

importance 0.65

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.6% to +5.9%

72 setups

+1.4%

58% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -5.5% to +1.3%

173 setups

-2.3%

33% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.2% to -0.1%

43 setups

-4.2%

21% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -37.0% to -17.6%

3 setups

-34.9%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.21 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into PDD.

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