Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

NVDA

239 historical chart-shape analogs of NVDA as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.20

weak

5d median

-0.87%

hit-rate 43%

5d IQR

[-5.29%, +3.28%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.61%, +10.87%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.02%

IQR

[-6.71%, +2.61%]

Hit-rate

39%

Top 5-day features

vix(positive)

importance 1.26

yield_curve_state=flat(positive)

importance 1.12

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.05

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -2.7% to +16.6%

49 setups

+10.2%

66% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.8% to +2.5%

134 setups

-0.2%

49% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -6.3% to +0.5%

68 setups

-2.2%

30% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -11.8% to -4.4%

22 setups

-8.1%

10% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.20 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NVDA.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open NVDA in Chart Library →