Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
NVDA
254 historical chart-shape analogs of NVDA as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.31
moderate
5d median
+0.19%
hit-rate 52%
5d IQR
[-3.50%, +3.59%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-6.31%, +8.45%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-0.30%
IQR
[-5.04%, +3.26%]
Hit-rate
48%
Top 5-day features
credit_spread_state=normal(positive)
importance 1.09
news_count_today(negative)
importance 0.90
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 0.89
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (6% of pool)
middle 50%: +2.0% to +15.5%
+5.5%
87% up
Smooth sideways (+1.3%) (29% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.1% to +4.0%
+1.3%
63% up
Smooth sideways (-0.6%) (48% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.7% to +2.4%
-0.6%
46% up
Downtrend (12% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.8% to +1.0%
-4.0%
32% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.31 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.31%, +8.45%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open NVDA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:30:22.396783+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (4440ms retrieval at build time).