Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
NVDA
247 historical chart-shape analogs of NVDA as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.22
weak
5d median
-0.42%
hit-rate 45%
5d IQR
[-3.71%, +2.60%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-11.65%, +7.30%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.48%
IQR
[-5.89%, +4.60%]
Hit-rate
52%
Top 5-day features
qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)
importance 1.71
vrp(negative)
importance 1.00
momentum_5d(negative)
importance 0.83
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (11% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.4% to +10.7%
+4.4%
82% up
Smooth sideways (68% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.3% to +2.3%
-0.4%
44% up
Downtrend (16% of pool)
middle 50%: -11.5% to +0.5%
-4.6%
27% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.22 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NVDA.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open NVDA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:30:31.916071+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (8958ms retrieval at build time).