Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

NVDA

278 historical chart-shape analogs of NVDA as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.26

weak

5d median

-0.31%

hit-rate 46%

5d IQR

[-5.02%, +3.92%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-9.40%, +8.98%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.47%

IQR

[-5.79%, +4.88%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

pct_off_ath(negative)

importance 1.54

opex_week=false(positive)

importance 0.85

relative_volume(negative)

importance 0.84

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.4% to +5.7%

67 setups

+1.4%

60% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -4.3% to +3.8%

155 setups

-0.1%

48% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.5% to +1.1%

59 setups

-3.9%

30% up

Sharp downtrend

middle 50%: -15.3% to -9.7%

4 setups

-11.7%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.26 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NVDA.

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