Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

NVDA

268 historical chart-shape analogs of NVDA as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.11

weak

5d median

-0.33%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-6.86%, +4.32%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.54%, +10.04%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.06%

IQR

[-9.36%, +6.09%]

Hit-rate

47%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLK(negative)

importance 1.44

vix_term_structure(positive)

importance 1.32

sector_etf=XLY(positive)

importance 1.19

How to read this

Consensus 0.11 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NVDA.

Live cohort

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