Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

NKE

259 historical chart-shape analogs of NKE as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.21

weak

5d median

-1.71%

hit-rate 41%

5d IQR

[-7.10%, +3.06%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-12.97%, +7.02%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.02%

IQR

[-10.08%, +4.14%]

Hit-rate

42%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 1.25

broke_ath=false(positive)

importance 0.99

macro_state=bearish(negative)

importance 0.93

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.2% to +5.4%

33 setups

+1.1%

54% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.8% to +3.7%

145 setups

+0.5%

53% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -12.7% to -2.7%

54 setups

-7.7%

12% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.21 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NKE.

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