Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

NKE

290 historical chart-shape analogs of NKE as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.05

weak

5d median

-0.78%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-5.30%, +6.85%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.14%, +15.27%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.77%

IQR

[-6.33%, +8.65%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

has_news=false(positive)

importance 1.23

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 0.78

broke_ath=false(negative)

importance 0.78

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -1.0% to +13.8%

57 setups

+6.4%

74% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -5.2% to +5.1%

174 setups

-1.3%

41% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.6% to +2.4%

57 setups

-3.8%

35% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.05 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NKE.

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