Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
MSFT
258 historical chart-shape analogs of MSFT as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.19
weak
5d median
+0.07%
hit-rate 51%
5d IQR
[-4.85%, +3.84%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-7.95%, +11.95%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-1.80%
IQR
[-6.65%, +5.89%]
Hit-rate
41%
Top 5-day features
yield_curve(positive)
importance 1.04
vix_term_structure(negative)
importance 0.96
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 0.76
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (18% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.8% to +12.6%
+4.6%
69% up
Smooth sideways (65% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.5% to +2.9%
+0.0%
51% up
Downtrend (10% of pool)
middle 50%: -8.7% to -1.6%
-6.6%
23% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.19 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MSFT.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MSFT in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:30:17.603226+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (7062ms retrieval at build time).