Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

MSFT

280 historical chart-shape analogs of MSFT as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.36

moderate

5d median

-0.61%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-3.80%, +3.87%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.73%, +8.23%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.11%

IQR

[-5.29%, +4.38%]

Hit-rate

44%

Top 5-day features

news_sentiment_30d_avg(positive)

importance 1.26

news_count_5d(negative)

importance 1.08

range_compression_z(negative)

importance 0.92

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -0.5% to +7.1%

32 setups

+4.1%

72% up

Smooth sideways (+1.1%)

middle 50%: -2.4% to +4.5%

92 setups

+1.1%

58% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.3% to +1.9%

34 setups

-1.7%

42% up

Smooth sideways (-1.9%)

middle 50%: -5.1% to +2.4%

126 setups

-1.9%

34% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.36 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.73%, +8.23%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open MSFT in Chart Library →