Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

MSFT

293 historical chart-shape analogs of MSFT as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.25

weak

5d median

-0.11%

hit-rate 49%

5d IQR

[-4.46%, +3.36%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.05%, +7.33%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.25%

IQR

[-7.44%, +6.53%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.31

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 1.11

relative_volume(positive)

importance 0.99

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp choppy uptrend

middle 50%: +7.1% to +18.2%

3 setups

+9.6%

100% up

Smooth sideways (+1.3%)

middle 50%: -2.3% to +4.7%

124 setups

+1.3%

61% up

Smooth sideways (-1.1%)

middle 50%: -4.6% to +1.8%

148 setups

-1.1%

41% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -10.1% to +2.5%

18 setups

-6.3%

28% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.25 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MSFT.

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