Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
MSFT
281 historical chart-shape analogs of MSFT as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.19
weak
5d median
-0.16%
hit-rate 48%
5d IQR
[-4.81%, +3.07%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-9.99%, +6.62%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-1.63%
IQR
[-6.64%, +3.00%]
Hit-rate
40%
Top 5-day features
has_news=false(positive)
importance 1.04
yield_curve_state=inverted(negative)
importance 1.01
hy_oas(positive)
importance 0.89
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (8% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.6% to +5.9%
+1.0%
57% up
Smooth sideways (68% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.9% to +3.1%
-0.1%
48% up
Downtrend (18% of pool)
middle 50%: -8.8% to +2.4%
-1.8%
42% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.19 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MSFT.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MSFT in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:30:22.575005+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (7329ms retrieval at build time).