Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

MRNA

251 historical chart-shape analogs of MRNA as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

-1.12%

hit-rate 43%

5d IQR

[-7.75%, +4.49%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-14.67%, +10.86%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-4.05%

IQR

[-13.72%, +3.90%]

Hit-rate

35%

Top 5-day features

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 1.41

broke_20d_range_high=false(positive)

importance 1.09

broke_50d_low=false(negative)

importance 1.01

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp uptrend

middle 50%: -3.8% to +7.9%

25 setups

+1.2%

57% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -4.4% to +8.6%

92 setups

+0.9%

53% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -8.1% to +3.3%

118 setups

-1.5%

42% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -16.0% to -0.5%

46 setups

-8.8%

23% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MRNA.

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