Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

MRNA

274 historical chart-shape analogs of MRNA as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.27

weak

5d median

+0.50%

hit-rate 53%

5d IQR

[-3.48%, +4.01%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.35%, +9.18%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.27%

IQR

[-5.89%, +5.95%]

Hit-rate

47%

Top 5-day features

days_since_ath(negative)

importance 1.20

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 1.15

yield_curve_state=__missing__(negative)

importance 1.02

How to read this

Consensus 0.27 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MRNA.

Live cohort

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