Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
MRNA
280 historical chart-shape analogs of MRNA as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.11
weak
5d median
-0.81%
hit-rate 45%
5d IQR
[-7.07%, +3.82%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-12.36%, +11.75%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-2.31%
IQR
[-9.85%, +6.08%]
Hit-rate
40%
Top 5-day features
news_count_anomaly(negative)
importance 1.01
range_compression_z(positive)
importance 0.92
spy_ret_60d(positive)
importance 0.86
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Sharp uptrend (6% of pool)
middle 50%: +2.3% to +14.7%
+7.6%
79% up
Uptrend (34% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.9% to +6.3%
+0.9%
53% up
Sideways (49% of pool)
middle 50%: -8.4% to +2.0%
-2.4%
38% up
Sharp choppy downtrend (6% of pool)
middle 50%: -13.0% to -2.6%
-7.7%
21% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.11 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MRNA.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MRNA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:06.339080+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (4538ms retrieval at build time).