Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

MRNA

275 historical chart-shape analogs of MRNA as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.08

weak

5d median

-1.42%

hit-rate 41%

5d IQR

[-6.78%, +3.10%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-12.34%, +10.23%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.41%

IQR

[-9.45%, +5.50%]

Hit-rate

45%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 1.22

hy_oas(positive)

importance 0.84

pct_off_ath(positive)

importance 0.75

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -2.9% to +7.8%

53 setups

+2.3%

60% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -5.3% to +3.1%

150 setups

-1.0%

42% up

Sharp downtrend

middle 50%: -7.4% to -1.6%

4 setups

-4.7%

25% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -11.8% to +0.1%

78 setups

-6.3%

27% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.08 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MRNA.

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