Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
MRNA
254 historical chart-shape analogs of MRNA as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.05
weak
5d median
-1.19%
hit-rate 44%
5d IQR
[-6.15%, +5.09%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-11.03%, +11.47%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-2.55%
IQR
[-9.84%, +7.50%]
Hit-rate
45%
Top 5-day features
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.52
days_since_ath(positive)
importance 1.30
macro_state=bullish(negative)
importance 0.92
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (18% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.9% to +8.6%
+3.5%
62% up
Smooth sideways (42% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.0% to +5.5%
-1.1%
45% up
Smooth downtrend (26% of pool)
middle 50%: -7.7% to +2.1%
-3.5%
33% up
Sharp choppy downtrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: -17.9% to -12.7%
-16.4%
0% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.05 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MRNA.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MRNA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:33:43.336011+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (3247ms retrieval at build time).