Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

MDB

256 historical chart-shape analogs of MDB as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.30

moderate

5d median

+0.67%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-3.30%, +5.17%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.01%, +10.13%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.39%

IQR

[-3.91%, +6.23%]

Hit-rate

52%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLU(negative)

importance 1.21

sector_etf=XLP(negative)

importance 1.02

vix(positive)

importance 0.96

How to read this

Consensus 0.30 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-8.01%, +10.13%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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