Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

MDB

285 historical chart-shape analogs of MDB as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.23

weak

5d median

-0.32%

hit-rate 48%

5d IQR

[-4.51%, +4.17%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.85%, +8.50%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.02%

IQR

[-6.70%, +5.11%]

Hit-rate

45%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 1.42

yield_curve(positive)

importance 1.08

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 1.04

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -2.1% to +7.0%

82 setups

+2.7%

65% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -4.4% to +2.6%

147 setups

-0.7%

44% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.2% to +0.7%

55 setups

-2.8%

31% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.23 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MDB.

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