Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

MDB

286 historical chart-shape analogs of MDB as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.34

moderate

5d median

-0.98%

hit-rate 43%

5d IQR

[-4.27%, +2.95%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.67%, +9.14%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.10%

IQR

[-6.95%, +4.78%]

Hit-rate

46%

Top 5-day features

volume_acceleration_5d(positive)

importance 1.10

broke_50d_high=false(positive)

importance 1.09

broke_ath=false(negative)

importance 1.04

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +1.7% to +11.6%

27 setups

+9.6%

78% up

Smooth sideways (+0.2%)

middle 50%: -2.5% to +3.9%

97 setups

+0.2%

54% up

Smooth sideways (-1.3%)

middle 50%: -4.4% to +1.7%

132 setups

-1.3%

37% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.4% to -3.2%

33 setups

-7.2%

9% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.34 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.67%, +9.14%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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