Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
MCD
251 historical chart-shape analogs of MCD as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.52
moderate
5d median
+0.70%
hit-rate 58%
5d IQR
[-2.10%, +3.57%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-4.61%, +7.68%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+1.90%
IQR
[-1.53%, +6.10%]
Hit-rate
68%
Top 5-day features
sector_rs_60d(negative)
importance 1.68
relative_volume(positive)
importance 0.98
qqq_minus_spy_60d(positive)
importance 0.96
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (7% of pool)
middle 50%: +2.8% to +9.6%
+5.9%
80% up
Smooth sideways (+1.6%) (44% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.1% to +3.7%
+1.6%
65% up
Smooth sideways (-0.4%) (31% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.9% to +2.1%
-0.4%
47% up
Downtrend (4% of pool)
middle 50%: -7.4% to +0.5%
-3.6%
31% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.52 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.61%, +7.68%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MCD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
GILD
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.82%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:31:52.035765+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (4352ms retrieval at build time).