Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

MCD

294 historical chart-shape analogs of MCD as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.34

moderate

5d median

+1.23%

hit-rate 60%

5d IQR

[-2.04%, +4.05%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.37%, +7.27%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.28%

IQR

[-2.60%, +5.35%]

Hit-rate

59%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=tight(positive)

importance 1.21

sector_etf=XLU(positive)

importance 1.20

macro_state=bullish(positive)

importance 1.14

How to read this

Consensus 0.34 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.37%, +7.27%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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