Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

MCD

284 historical chart-shape analogs of MCD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

+0.50%

hit-rate 52%

5d IQR

[-4.27%, +3.94%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.63%, +8.37%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.56%

IQR

[-7.94%, +4.79%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=tight(positive)

importance 1.29

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 1.23

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.03

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.1% to +9.8%

38 setups

+1.9%

61% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.1% to +3.6%

187 setups

+1.0%

55% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -10.1% to +2.5%

57 setups

-2.0%

37% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into MCD.

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