Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
MCD
260 historical chart-shape analogs of MCD as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.52
moderate
5d median
+1.30%
hit-rate 60%
5d IQR
[-2.02%, +4.03%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-4.65%, +8.38%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+2.04%
IQR
[-1.05%, +7.04%]
Hit-rate
70%
Top 5-day features
hy_oas(positive)
importance 0.94
broke_20d_range_high=false(positive)
importance 0.88
credit_spread_state=normal(negative)
importance 0.87
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (8% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.4% to +8.1%
+5.3%
83% up
Smooth sideways (+1.7%) (43% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.6% to +4.7%
+1.7%
65% up
Smooth sideways (+0.0%) (32% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.5% to +2.4%
+0.0%
52% up
Downtrend (5% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.7% to +3.2%
-0.2%
43% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.52 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.65%, +8.38%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open MCD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
TGT
consensus 0.50 · 5d +0.29%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:32:10.836790+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (2596ms retrieval at build time).