Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

JPM

274 historical chart-shape analogs of JPM as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.52

moderate

5d median

+0.13%

hit-rate 51%

5d IQR

[-2.06%, +3.13%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.69%, +5.61%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.42%

IQR

[-2.75%, +3.79%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

pct_off_52w_low(positive)

importance 1.71

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 1.15

vol_regime=high(positive)

importance 0.97

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways (+0.8%)

middle 50%: -1.1% to +2.6%

114 setups

+0.8%

58% up

Smooth sideways (-0.6%)

middle 50%: -1.8% to +1.2%

93 setups

-0.6%

43% up

Choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -15.5% to -7.1%

3 setups

-10.1%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.52 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.69%, +5.61%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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