Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

JPM

285 historical chart-shape analogs of JPM as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.49

moderate

5d median

+0.44%

hit-rate 53%

5d IQR

[-2.65%, +3.27%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.47%, +5.72%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.02%

IQR

[-4.01%, +4.76%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.72

spy_ret_20d(positive)

importance 1.07

broke_50d_low=false(negative)

importance 1.03

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -0.2% to +5.4%

59 setups

+2.2%

73% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -2.4% to +3.1%

182 setups

+0.0%

51% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -5.6% to +1.8%

46 setups

-3.0%

39% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.49 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.47%, +5.72%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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