Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

INTC

205 historical chart-shape analogs of INTC as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.13

weak

5d median

+0.57%

hit-rate 52%

5d IQR

[-5.27%, +6.94%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.31%, +14.34%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.18%

IQR

[-8.04%, +5.78%]

Hit-rate

40%

Top 5-day features

qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)

importance 1.75

vrp(negative)

importance 1.15

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.04

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp choppy uptrend

middle 50%: -1.1% to +25.6%

6 setups

+13.6%

60% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -1.7% to +15.0%

53 setups

+3.0%

70% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -3.2% to +4.2%

104 setups

+0.6%

55% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -6.6% to +1.6%

40 setups

-3.9%

28% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.13 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into INTC.

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