Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
HD
284 historical chart-shape analogs of HD as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.21
weak
5d median
+1.35%
hit-rate 62%
5d IQR
[-1.27%, +5.27%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-4.60%, +9.91%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+3.16%
IQR
[-2.63%, +9.71%]
Hit-rate
62%
Top 5-day features
spy_ret_60d(negative)
importance 1.16
opex_week=false(negative)
importance 0.92
yield_curve_state=flat(positive)
importance 0.81
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (12% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.4% to +8.1%
+3.8%
89% up
Smooth sideways (55% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.1% to +5.5%
+1.7%
63% up
Smooth downtrend (29% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.1% to +3.1%
-0.1%
48% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.21 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into HD.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open HD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:17.767027+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (3025ms retrieval at build time).