Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

HD

274 historical chart-shape analogs of HD as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.49

moderate

5d median

+1.09%

hit-rate 62%

5d IQR

[-1.66%, +3.60%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.52%, +7.49%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.76%

IQR

[-1.88%, +5.95%]

Hit-rate

59%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 2.05

has_news=false(negative)

importance 1.38

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.07

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -0.2% to +6.4%

61 setups

+3.2%

72% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -0.8% to +2.5%

110 setups

+0.5%

60% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -4.6% to +2.2%

45 setups

-1.7%

42% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.49 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.52%, +7.49%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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