Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

HD

263 historical chart-shape analogs of HD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.41

moderate

5d median

+0.46%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-2.61%, +3.75%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.76%, +8.37%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.30%

IQR

[-2.51%, +6.06%]

Hit-rate

61%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.18

cross_sectional_momentum_rank(negative)

importance 1.05

relative_volume(negative)

importance 1.04

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +2.1% to +7.4%

27 setups

+5.5%

85% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -2.2% to +3.4%

186 setups

+0.6%

56% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -6.0% to +0.7%

48 setups

-2.6%

31% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.41 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.76%, +8.37%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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