Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
HD
285 historical chart-shape analogs of HD as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.39
moderate
5d median
+0.65%
hit-rate 58%
5d IQR
[-2.00%, +4.78%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.49%, +8.55%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+2.43%
IQR
[-2.98%, +6.86%]
Hit-rate
60%
Top 5-day features
spy_ret_60d(negative)
importance 1.38
sector_rs_60d(negative)
importance 1.17
rs_in_sector_rank(positive)
importance 1.00
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (11% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.4% to +8.1%
+5.5%
91% up
Smooth sideways (59% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.8% to +4.2%
+0.5%
57% up
Smooth downtrend (25% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.8% to +2.4%
-0.5%
47% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.39 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.49%, +8.55%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open HD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:33:54.783246+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (3855ms retrieval at build time).