Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

GOOGL

250 historical chart-shape analogs of GOOGL as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.22

weak

5d median

-0.44%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-4.36%, +5.62%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.14%, +9.59%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.38%

IQR

[-5.41%, +6.82%]

Hit-rate

52%

Top 5-day features

sign_alignment(positive)

importance 0.80

yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)

importance 0.80

sector_etf=XLK(negative)

importance 0.76

How to read this

Consensus 0.22 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into GOOGL.

Live cohort

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