Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

GOOGL

222 historical chart-shape analogs of GOOGL as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.16

weak

5d median

+0.65%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-4.04%, +3.12%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.42%, +11.88%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.80%

IQR

[-4.66%, +4.82%]

Hit-rate

56%

Top 5-day features

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.02

days_since_ath(positive)

importance 0.93

momentum_5d(negative)

importance 0.89

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +0.6% to +21.4%

50 setups

+11.5%

74% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.3% to +2.6%

150 setups

+0.7%

57% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -4.9% to +2.3%

74 setups

-1.1%

40% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -12.4% to -4.5%

7 setups

-9.5%

14% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.16 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into GOOGL.

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