Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

GOOGL

271 historical chart-shape analogs of GOOGL as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

+0.28%

hit-rate 50%

5d IQR

[-5.35%, +5.90%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.31%, +16.46%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.75%

IQR

[-6.67%, +11.73%]

Hit-rate

55%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 1.14

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 1.11

days_since_ath(negative)

importance 0.98

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp uptrend

middle 50%: +2.5% to +18.8%

18 setups

+8.8%

78% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -2.9% to +11.4%

98 setups

+3.4%

62% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -5.8% to +2.6%

132 setups

-1.8%

42% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.7% to +2.6%

36 setups

-4.3%

35% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into GOOGL.

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