Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

DKNG

230 historical chart-shape analogs of DKNG as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.18

weak

5d median

+0.55%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-4.26%, +6.03%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.79%, +12.50%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.77%

IQR

[-6.35%, +6.69%]

Hit-rate

58%

Top 5-day features

broke_50d_low=false(positive)

importance 0.98

month_of_year(positive)

importance 0.87

realized_vol_20d(positive)

importance 0.75

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -1.1% to +8.2%

25 setups

+3.0%

70% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.5% to +8.6%

57 setups

+1.9%

62% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.2% to +1.1%

24 setups

-2.7%

30% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.18 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into DKNG.

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