Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

DDOG

272 historical chart-shape analogs of DDOG as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.36

moderate

5d median

-0.79%

hit-rate 46%

5d IQR

[-4.34%, +3.16%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.07%, +8.33%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.52%

IQR

[-5.73%, +4.15%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.12

broke_20d_range_high=false(negative)

importance 0.94

broke_50d_high=false(positive)

importance 0.88

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend (+3.9%)

middle 50%: +0.6% to +11.4%

12 setups

+3.9%

73% up

Uptrend (+0.8%)

middle 50%: -1.7% to +4.1%

78 setups

+0.8%

58% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.7% to +2.1%

153 setups

-0.9%

43% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.7% to -1.8%

40 setups

-5.7%

23% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.36 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-8.07%, +8.33%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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