Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

CRWV

219 historical chart-shape analogs of CRWV as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

-0.86%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-7.89%, +7.23%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-14.29%, +14.37%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.01%

IQR

[-10.64%, +4.60%]

Hit-rate

43%

Top 5-day features

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.12

yield_curve(positive)

importance 1.06

hy_oas(negative)

importance 0.94

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp choppy uptrend

middle 50%: -1.1% to +14.4%

38 setups

+7.6%

71% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -2.6% to +8.9%

70 setups

+2.5%

59% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -9.0% to +2.9%

116 setups

-2.6%

40% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -11.3% to +6.9%

53 setups

-4.5%

34% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into CRWV.

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