Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

CRWV

246 historical chart-shape analogs of CRWV as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.16

weak

5d median

-2.74%

hit-rate 39%

5d IQR

[-7.02%, +3.01%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-12.17%, +9.68%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-3.75%

IQR

[-10.41%, +3.18%]

Hit-rate

31%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=low(positive)

importance 0.93

vix(negative)

importance 0.80

sector_rs_60d(negative)

importance 0.75

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -4.1% to +8.3%

49 setups

+2.0%

63% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -5.2% to +3.0%

88 setups

-1.6%

42% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -9.1% to +1.5%

99 setups

-4.2%

33% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -11.1% to -0.1%

45 setups

-6.0%

24% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.16 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into CRWV.

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