Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

COST

263 historical chart-shape analogs of COST as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.31

moderate

5d median

+0.48%

hit-rate 53%

5d IQR

[-4.46%, +3.96%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-9.84%, +7.94%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.57%

IQR

[-6.81%, +5.93%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

pct_off_52w_low(positive)

importance 1.42

realized_vol_20d(negative)

importance 1.25

rs_in_sector_rank(positive)

importance 1.10

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways (+1.5%)

middle 50%: -1.3% to +3.4%

55 setups

+1.5%

67% up

Smooth sideways (+0.5%)

middle 50%: -2.6% to +2.7%

48 setups

+0.5%

56% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -10.2% to -1.2%

9 setups

-7.8%

22% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.31 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-9.84%, +7.94%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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