Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

COST

273 historical chart-shape analogs of COST as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.62

strong

5d median

+0.17%

hit-rate 52%

5d IQR

[-2.32%, +2.11%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.79%, +4.28%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.05%

IQR

[-2.91%, +4.06%]

Hit-rate

50%

Top 5-day features

vix(positive)

importance 1.38

sector_etf=XLU(negative)

importance 1.29

sector_etf=XLK(negative)

importance 1.26

How to read this

Consensus 0.62 is in the strong band — historical analogs of COST's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-4.79%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+2.11%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live cohort

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-anchor feature attribution:

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