Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
COST
266 historical chart-shape analogs of COST as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.26
weak
5d median
+0.06%
hit-rate 51%
5d IQR
[-4.56%, +3.87%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-8.97%, +8.40%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+1.13%
IQR
[-4.08%, +8.48%]
Hit-rate
56%
Top 5-day features
days_since_earnings(negative)
importance 1.28
broke_20d_range_high=false(positive)
importance 1.08
realized_vol_20d(negative)
importance 1.04
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (24% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.6% to +8.3%
+3.2%
71% up
Sharp choppy uptrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.2% to +6.1%
+2.1%
50% up
Smooth sideways (55% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.0% to +2.7%
+0.1%
51% up
Downtrend (15% of pool)
middle 50%: -9.7% to -1.2%
-5.1%
20% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.26 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into COST.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open COST in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:34:05.907857+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (4258ms retrieval at build time).