Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
COIN
271 historical chart-shape analogs of COIN as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.34
moderate
5d median
+1.01%
hit-rate 57%
5d IQR
[-2.43%, +4.14%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.78%, +6.34%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+1.10%
IQR
[-5.27%, +4.97%]
Hit-rate
56%
Top 5-day features
yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)
importance 1.12
credit_spread_state=normal(negative)
importance 1.10
hy_oas(positive)
importance 0.94
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (7% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.2% to +8.1%
+4.4%
95% up
Smooth sideways (58% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.8% to +4.1%
+1.1%
58% up
Smooth downtrend (18% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.3% to +2.0%
-1.9%
42% up
Sharp downtrend (3% of pool)
middle 50%: -14.9% to +3.6%
-2.5%
44% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.34 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.78%, +6.34%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open COIN in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:49.333932+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (5399ms retrieval at build time).