Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

COIN

32 historical chart-shape analogs of COIN as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.63

strong

5d median

-1.90%

hit-rate 34%

5d IQR

[-4.23%, +1.94%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.43%, +4.53%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.02%

IQR

[-4.11%, +0.05%]

Hit-rate

25%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 0.86

relative_volume(positive)

importance 0.79

days_since_earnings(negative)

importance 0.78

How to read this

Consensus 0.63 is in the strong band — historical analogs of COIN's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-5.43%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.94%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live cohort

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