Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

COIN

237 historical chart-shape analogs of COIN as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.22

weak

5d median

-2.49%

hit-rate 34%

5d IQR

[-7.48%, +1.58%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.36%, +6.51%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-3.64%

IQR

[-9.69%, +3.44%]

Hit-rate

36%

Top 5-day features

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.44

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.36

broke_50d_high=false(negative)

importance 0.94

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -4.2% to +6.5%

61 setups

+0.3%

53% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -6.1% to +1.8%

147 setups

-2.1%

36% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -10.1% to -1.2%

70 setups

-6.5%

14% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.22 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into COIN.

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