Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

COIN

254 historical chart-shape analogs of COIN as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

+0.34%

hit-rate 51%

5d IQR

[-8.94%, +6.54%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-18.98%, +13.37%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.49%

IQR

[-12.77%, +6.75%]

Hit-rate

44%

Top 5-day features

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 2.07

credit_spread_state=tight(positive)

importance 1.62

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.03

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -2.6% to +13.2%

50 setups

+8.0%

69% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -6.1% to +5.3%

80 setups

+1.7%

57% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.1% to +3.4%

42 setups

-1.2%

42% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -19.8% to -2.7%

17 setups

-11.4%

18% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into COIN.

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