Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

CEG

252 historical chart-shape analogs of CEG as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.29

weak

5d median

-0.50%

hit-rate 46%

5d IQR

[-5.30%, +4.37%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.18%, +9.29%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.35%

IQR

[-8.41%, +5.37%]

Hit-rate

43%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.41

credit_spread_state=tight(positive)

importance 1.27

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 1.03

How to read this

Consensus 0.29 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into CEG.

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