Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

CEG

244 historical chart-shape analogs of CEG as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.52

moderate

5d median

+1.02%

hit-rate 60%

5d IQR

[-2.09%, +3.67%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.69%, +6.74%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.13%

IQR

[-3.05%, +4.15%]

Hit-rate

56%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.25

yield_curve(positive)

importance 1.10

rs_in_sector_rank(positive)

importance 0.97

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +4.7% to +7.9%

5 setups

+5.6%

100% up

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.8% to +8.1%

32 setups

+4.3%

77% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -1.1% to +4.2%

113 setups

+1.5%

64% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -6.5% to +0.5%

36 setups

-3.7%

29% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.52 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.69%, +6.74%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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