Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

BKNG

288 historical chart-shape analogs of BKNG as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.28

weak

5d median

-0.23%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-3.40%, +3.06%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.28%, +7.19%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.09%

IQR

[-4.58%, +5.08%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.05

vol_regime=low(positive)

importance 0.89

has_news=false(positive)

importance 0.74

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -0.5% to +8.3%

52 setups

+3.5%

67% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.3% to +2.3%

214 setups

-0.4%

45% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -15.1% to -0.3%

23 setups

-4.9%

22% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.28 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into BKNG.

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