Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
BABA
277 historical chart-shape analogs of BABA as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.37
moderate
5d median
-1.13%
hit-rate 44%
5d IQR
[-5.60%, +3.53%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-8.94%, +8.50%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-2.16%
IQR
[-7.71%, +3.71%]
Hit-rate
38%
Top 5-day features
yield_curve_state=flat(positive)
importance 1.49
broke_50d_high=false(negative)
importance 1.18
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.02
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (13% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.8% to +8.4%
+2.1%
69% up
Smooth sideways (39% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.2% to +4.6%
+0.6%
52% up
Smooth downtrend (37% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.8% to +0.7%
-3.1%
31% up
Choppy downtrend (7% of pool)
middle 50%: -10.6% to -0.5%
-5.2%
15% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.37 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-8.94%, +8.50%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open BABA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:34:34.186553+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (5929ms retrieval at build time).