Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

BABA

273 historical chart-shape analogs of BABA as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.42

moderate

5d median

-0.60%

hit-rate 44%

5d IQR

[-4.48%, +3.62%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-9.11%, +8.36%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.34%

IQR

[-4.92%, +3.97%]

Hit-rate

40%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 1.44

opex_week=false(positive)

importance 1.05

yield_curve_state=normal(positive)

importance 0.92

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -0.9% to +7.1%

52 setups

+1.0%

65% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.0% to +3.5%

140 setups

-0.0%

50% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -6.8% to +0.0%

76 setups

-2.7%

25% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.3% to -1.2%

12 setups

-5.5%

17% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.42 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-9.11%, +8.36%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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