Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

BABA

230 historical chart-shape analogs of BABA as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.48

moderate

5d median

+0.21%

hit-rate 52%

5d IQR

[-3.02%, +2.40%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.80%, +5.66%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.04%

IQR

[-3.33%, +3.66%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 1.09

yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)

importance 0.95

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 0.93

How to read this

Consensus 0.48 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.80%, +5.66%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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