Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

BABA

276 historical chart-shape analogs of BABA as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.36

moderate

5d median

-0.43%

hit-rate 44%

5d IQR

[-4.08%, +2.02%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.97%, +4.73%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.36%

IQR

[-6.71%, +2.01%]

Hit-rate

38%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=high(positive)

importance 1.67

vol_regime=low(positive)

importance 1.43

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 0.82

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +2.3% to +11.3%

13 setups

+4.5%

77% up

Smooth sideways (+1.2%)

middle 50%: -1.7% to +2.9%

95 setups

+1.2%

60% up

Smooth sideways (-1.0%)

middle 50%: -5.0% to +1.4%

124 setups

-1.0%

36% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -6.8% to -0.4%

47 setups

-3.1%

18% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.36 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.97%, +4.73%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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