Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
BABA
273 historical chart-shape analogs of BABA as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.10
weak
5d median
-1.72%
hit-rate 39%
5d IQR
[-6.08%, +2.57%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-10.34%, +8.56%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-2.57%
IQR
[-8.34%, +3.65%]
Hit-rate
34%
Top 5-day features
vol_regime=low(positive)
importance 1.15
relative_volume(positive)
importance 0.94
broke_20d_range_low=false(negative)
importance 0.75
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (10% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.3% to +8.5%
+2.7%
60% up
Smooth sideways (47% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.4% to +4.3%
-0.1%
48% up
Smooth downtrend (34% of pool)
middle 50%: -8.4% to -0.1%
-4.1%
24% up
Choppy downtrend (4% of pool)
middle 50%: -13.5% to -5.0%
-9.4%
0% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.10 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into BABA.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open BABA in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:34:11.486202+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (5215ms retrieval at build time).