Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

ASML

271 historical chart-shape analogs of ASML as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.17

weak

5d median

-1.33%

hit-rate 44%

5d IQR

[-5.99%, +4.63%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.36%, +9.60%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.49%

IQR

[-8.72%, +3.67%]

Hit-rate

42%

Top 5-day features

news_count_5d(negative)

importance 0.62

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 0.58

yield_curve_state=inverted(negative)

importance 0.53

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +2.6% to +12.7%

24 setups

+7.2%

83% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.8% to +4.5%

188 setups

-0.8%

47% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -9.3% to +7.1%

3 setups

-1.1%

50% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.8% to -1.0%

68 setups

-6.2%

22% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.17 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into ASML.

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