Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

ASML

235 historical chart-shape analogs of ASML as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.34

moderate

5d median

+0.00%

hit-rate 49%

5d IQR

[-2.95%, +3.10%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.02%, +6.30%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.20%

IQR

[-4.42%, +5.44%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLV(negative)

importance 1.73

sector_etf=XLY(negative)

importance 1.58

has_news=false(negative)

importance 1.01

How to read this

Consensus 0.34 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.02%, +6.30%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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