Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

ASML

272 historical chart-shape analogs of ASML as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.41

moderate

5d median

+0.59%

hit-rate 55%

5d IQR

[-3.35%, +3.96%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.68%, +7.72%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.15%

IQR

[-4.75%, +5.03%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

qqq_minus_spy_60d(positive)

importance 1.08

broke_ath=false(positive)

importance 1.02

momentum_5d(negative)

importance 0.96

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +2.5% to +12.1%

14 setups

+8.5%

92% up

Smooth sideways (+1.9%)

middle 50%: -2.5% to +6.5%

81 setups

+1.9%

60% up

Smooth sideways (-0.4%)

middle 50%: -4.0% to +3.0%

94 setups

-0.4%

47% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.6% to -0.8%

21 setups

-2.5%

21% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.41 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.68%, +7.72%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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