Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
ASML
244 historical chart-shape analogs of ASML as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.36
moderate
5d median
-0.12%
hit-rate 49%
5d IQR
[-2.62%, +3.56%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-6.42%, +6.39%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.22%
IQR
[-3.13%, +4.70%]
Hit-rate
50%
Top 5-day features
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.15
vol_regime=high(positive)
importance 0.74
yield_curve(positive)
importance 0.65
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (7% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.8% to +12.2%
+7.5%
84% up
Smooth sideways (+0.4%) (42% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.0% to +3.7%
+0.4%
56% up
Smooth sideways (-1.1%) (35% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.3% to +1.5%
-1.1%
38% up
Downtrend (3% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.0% to -1.2%
-4.3%
10% up
Was this useful?
How to read this
Consensus 0.36 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.42%, +6.39%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open ASML in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:31:14.218796+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (9735ms retrieval at build time).