Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
ASML
289 historical chart-shape analogs of ASML as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.53
moderate
5d median
-0.68%
hit-rate 43%
5d IQR
[-3.61%, +2.19%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-7.80%, +4.80%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-1.59%
IQR
[-5.47%, +2.88%]
Hit-rate
41%
Top 5-day features
broke_20d_range_low=false(negative)
importance 1.22
days_since_ath(positive)
importance 0.96
credit_spread_state=tight(positive)
importance 0.91
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (12% of pool)
middle 50%: -1.6% to +5.0%
+1.6%
57% up
Smooth sideways (-0.1%) (47% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.0% to +2.8%
-0.1%
49% up
Smooth sideways (-2.1%) (32% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.5% to +0.4%
-2.1%
32% up
Downtrend (6% of pool)
middle 50%: -9.6% to -0.8%
-4.4%
18% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.53 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.80%, +4.80%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open ASML in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
TGT
consensus 0.50 · 5d +0.29%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:31:30.121119+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (8298ms retrieval at build time).