Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
AMZN
284 historical chart-shape analogs of AMZN as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.36
moderate
5d median
+0.13%
hit-rate 52%
5d IQR
[-3.89%, +3.37%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-7.32%, +5.62%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.05%
IQR
[-4.60%, +4.33%]
Hit-rate
50%
Top 5-day features
market_rs_60d(negative)
importance 1.37
credit_spread_state=normal(negative)
importance 1.21
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.01
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (7% of pool)
middle 50%: +1.3% to +9.5%
+4.6%
79% up
Smooth sideways (+0.5%) (52% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.5% to +3.7%
+0.5%
56% up
Smooth sideways (-0.5%) (31% of pool)
middle 50%: -5.2% to +2.3%
-0.5%
45% up
Downtrend (6% of pool)
middle 50%: -9.9% to +0.6%
-5.0%
32% up
Was this useful?
How to read this
Consensus 0.36 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.32%, +5.62%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open AMZN in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:30:51.652995+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6431ms retrieval at build time).