Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

AMZN

271 historical chart-shape analogs of AMZN as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.27

weak

5d median

+0.25%

hit-rate 52%

5d IQR

[-4.09%, +5.36%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-9.08%, +9.53%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+2.16%

IQR

[-3.94%, +8.85%]

Hit-rate

59%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.84

qqq_minus_spy_60d(negative)

importance 1.46

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 1.15

How to read this

Consensus 0.27 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into AMZN.

Live cohort

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