Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

AMZN

263 historical chart-shape analogs of AMZN as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.19

weak

5d median

+1.27%

hit-rate 57%

5d IQR

[-3.36%, +5.74%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.12%, +11.49%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.84%

IQR

[-5.40%, +7.14%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

volume_acceleration_5d(positive)

importance 1.55

sector_rs_60d(positive)

importance 1.31

realized_vol_20d(positive)

importance 1.27

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +8.7% to +18.7%

15 setups

+10.3%

82% up

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.1% to +10.4%

61 setups

+4.1%

76% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.9% to +4.6%

123 setups

+0.6%

53% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -5.2% to +1.2%

43 setups

-3.5%

33% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.19 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into AMZN.

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