Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

AMZN

281 historical chart-shape analogs of AMZN as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.31

moderate

5d median

+0.84%

hit-rate 57%

5d IQR

[-3.50%, +4.85%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-7.92%, +8.36%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.39%

IQR

[-4.95%, +4.82%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 1.51

has_news=false(negative)

importance 1.10

cross_sectional_momentum_rank(positive)

importance 1.10

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +5.6% to +15.6%

18 setups

+8.4%

88% up

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: -1.3% to +6.2%

94 setups

+2.2%

70% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.7% to +2.7%

136 setups

+0.2%

54% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -8.2% to -0.0%

41 setups

-2.9%

26% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.31 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-7.92%, +8.36%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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