Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

AMD

270 historical chart-shape analogs of AMD as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

-2.80%

hit-rate 38%

5d IQR

[-8.21%, +3.07%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-13.70%, +13.35%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.47%

IQR

[-9.31%, +6.30%]

Hit-rate

45%

Top 5-day features

yield_curve_state=flat(negative)

importance 1.07

vix(negative)

importance 1.01

broke_20d_range_low=false(negative)

importance 0.88

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp uptrend

middle 50%: -0.5% to +17.4%

28 setups

+7.1%

71% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -5.8% to +7.3%

79 setups

-1.4%

42% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -8.2% to +0.9%

125 setups

-3.7%

33% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -13.3% to +1.9%

55 setups

-6.4%

28% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into AMD.

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