Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

AMD

197 historical chart-shape analogs of AMD as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

+1.02%

hit-rate 53%

5d IQR

[-5.71%, +9.07%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-14.10%, +20.47%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.23%

IQR

[-7.39%, +7.77%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

qqq_minus_spy_60d(positive)

importance 1.55

vix_term_structure(negative)

importance 1.50

yield_curve(positive)

importance 1.12

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp choppy uptrend

middle 50%: -1.1% to +14.4%

38 setups

+9.0%

68% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -3.4% to +13.5%

103 setups

+5.5%

65% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.4% to +6.4%

123 setups

-1.7%

45% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -19.7% to -4.1%

11 setups

-6.6%

9% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into AMD.

Live comp set

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