Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
AMD
200 historical chart-shape analogs of AMD as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.03
weak
5d median
-1.06%
hit-rate 41%
5d IQR
[-5.27%, +2.34%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-13.93%, +8.93%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
-1.92%
IQR
[-9.31%, +3.28%]
Hit-rate
39%
Top 5-day features
hy_oas(positive)
importance 1.17
has_news=false(positive)
importance 0.87
spy_ret_60d(negative)
importance 0.86
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Uptrend (16% of pool)
middle 50%: +0.0% to +7.2%
+2.6%
73% up
Smooth sideways (55% of pool)
middle 50%: -4.0% to +1.7%
-1.2%
37% up
Downtrend (19% of pool)
middle 50%: -14.5% to +0.4%
-6.3%
27% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.03 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into AMD.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open AMD in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:31:02.962890+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6653ms retrieval at build time).