Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-07
AAPL
293 historical chart-shape analogs of AAPL as of 2026-08-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.43
moderate
5d median
-0.06%
hit-rate 49%
5d IQR
[-2.37%, +2.11%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-5.20%, +4.49%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.17%
IQR
[-3.03%, +3.26%]
Hit-rate
51%
Top 5-day features
vol_regime=low(negative)
importance 0.87
days_since_ath(positive)
importance 0.60
opex_week=false(positive)
importance 0.59
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (14% of pool)
middle 50%: +0.8% to +5.0%
+2.3%
81% up
Smooth sideways (68% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.2% to +1.6%
-0.2%
48% up
Smooth downtrend (14% of pool)
middle 50%: -6.7% to +0.3%
-2.4%
26% up
Sharp choppy uptrend (1% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.2% to +15.0%
-2.9%
33% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.43 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.20%, +4.49%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open AAPL in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
PFE
consensus 0.64 · 5d +0.77%
C
consensus 0.64 · 5d -0.21%
XOM
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.14%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d -0.33%
BAC
consensus 0.57 · 5d +0.42%
DIS
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.15%
PDD
consensus 0.54 · 5d -0.13%
JPM
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.28%
MS
consensus 0.53 · 5d +0.66%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.70%
ABNB
consensus 0.51 · 5d -0.33%
LOW
consensus 0.48 · 5d +0.01%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-08T04:30:10.171926+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (7562ms retrieval at build time).