Cohort snapshot · 2026-08-17
AAPL
286 historical chart-shape analogs of AAPL as of 2026-08-17, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.
Consensus
0.44
moderate
5d median
-0.13%
hit-rate 47%
5d IQR
[-2.51%, +2.02%]
middle 50%
Conformal 80%
[-6.09%, +5.36%]
p10–p90
10-day forward distribution
Median
+0.52%
IQR
[-2.95%, +4.21%]
Hit-rate
56%
Top 5-day features
credit_spread_state=normal(negative)
importance 1.87
credit_spread_state=tight(positive)
importance 1.34
broke_20d_range_high=false(positive)
importance 1.26
Historical playbook
300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.
Outcome modes
Smooth uptrend (12% of pool)
middle 50%: -0.2% to +5.9%
+2.9%
70% up
Smooth sideways (72% of pool)
middle 50%: -2.2% to +1.6%
-0.1%
46% up
Sharp choppy uptrend (2% of pool)
middle 50%: -3.4% to +9.7%
-2.9%
40% up
Smooth downtrend (10% of pool)
middle 50%: -7.3% to -0.2%
-3.9%
21% up
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How to read this
Consensus 0.44 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.09%, +5.36%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.
Live comp set
This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:
Open AAPL in Chart Library →Other cohort snapshots
GILD
consensus 0.68 · 5d +0.85%
XOM
consensus 0.67 · 5d +0.83%
C
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.35%
BAC
consensus 0.65 · 5d +0.27%
JPM
consensus 0.63 · 5d +0.62%
CVX
consensus 0.61 · 5d +0.64%
PFE
consensus 0.56 · 5d +0.64%
ASML
consensus 0.53 · 5d -0.68%
MCD
consensus 0.52 · 5d +1.30%
GS
consensus 0.52 · 5d +0.19%
LLY
consensus 0.51 · 5d +0.15%
AVGO
consensus 0.50 · 5d -0.15%
Snapshot built at 2026-08-18T04:30:14.857086+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (11441ms retrieval at build time).