Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

AAPL

233 historical chart-shape analogs of AAPL as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.30

weak

5d median

+1.32%

hit-rate 59%

5d IQR

[-2.74%, +4.41%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.85%, +10.60%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+2.71%

IQR

[-2.13%, +8.36%]

Hit-rate

64%

Top 5-day features

volume_acceleration_5d(negative)

importance 1.56

relative_volume(positive)

importance 1.32

broke_20d_range_high=false(negative)

importance 1.08

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +1.1% to +5.9%

46 setups

+3.5%

81% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -5.9% to +4.3%

20 setups

+1.1%

59% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -2.1% to +2.3%

120 setups

+0.3%

54% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.30 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into AAPL.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open AAPL in Chart Library →