Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

AAPL

273 historical chart-shape analogs of AAPL as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.33

moderate

5d median

-1.46%

hit-rate 39%

5d IQR

[-5.42%, +2.00%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.98%, +6.45%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.17%

IQR

[-6.96%, +3.54%]

Hit-rate

45%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLF(negative)

importance 1.33

sector_etf=XLY(positive)

importance 1.07

sector_etf=XLC(negative)

importance 1.00

How to read this

Consensus 0.33 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-8.98%, +6.45%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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