Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

AAPL

277 historical chart-shape analogs of AAPL as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.48

moderate

5d median

+0.20%

hit-rate 51%

5d IQR

[-2.83%, +2.96%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.37%, +5.55%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.10%

IQR

[-4.54%, +3.65%]

Hit-rate

48%

Top 5-day features

yield_curve_state=inverted(negative)

importance 1.31

broke_20d_range_high=false(positive)

importance 1.17

pct_off_ath(negative)

importance 1.09

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth uptrend

middle 50%: +0.7% to +6.0%

34 setups

+3.3%

75% up

Smooth sideways (+0.5%)

middle 50%: -1.9% to +2.8%

169 setups

+0.5%

55% up

Smooth sideways (-1.3%)

middle 50%: -4.7% to +2.4%

73 setups

-1.3%

35% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.8% to -2.5%

9 setups

-6.0%

13% up

Was this useful?

How to read this

Consensus 0.48 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.37%, +5.55%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live comp set

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-subject drivers:

Open AAPL in Chart Library →