Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

RKLB

228 historical chart-shape analogs of RKLB as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.18

weak

5d median

+0.08%

hit-rate 50%

5d IQR

[-4.92%, +5.60%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.55%, +9.56%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.69%

IQR

[-6.43%, +6.45%]

Hit-rate

42%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=normal(positive)

importance 1.09

yield_curve_state=inverted(negative)

importance 0.97

vol_regime=low(negative)

importance 0.93

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -0.5% to +12.5%

48 setups

+6.4%

71% up

Sideways

middle 50%: -4.1% to +5.5%

126 setups

+1.2%

56% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -6.7% to +2.3%

100 setups

-2.1%

39% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -27.3% to -25.2%

3 setups

-27.0%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.18 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into RKLB.

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