Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

PLTR

270 historical chart-shape analogs of PLTR as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.21

weak

5d median

-0.84%

hit-rate 45%

5d IQR

[-5.26%, +3.55%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.42%, +9.69%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.96%

IQR

[-7.83%, +3.87%]

Hit-rate

40%

Top 5-day features

hy_oas(positive)

importance 1.80

has_news=false(positive)

importance 0.93

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 0.78

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp choppy uptrend

middle 50%: +6.5% to +13.9%

6 setups

+12.6%

83% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -4.2% to +4.5%

60 setups

+1.2%

59% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -4.3% to +3.8%

146 setups

-0.3%

48% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.6% to +0.2%

78 setups

-4.1%

26% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.21 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into PLTR.

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