Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

PLTR

279 historical chart-shape analogs of PLTR as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.31

moderate

5d median

+0.44%

hit-rate 56%

5d IQR

[-2.36%, +2.88%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.00%, +9.02%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.04%

IQR

[-3.65%, +3.12%]

Hit-rate

49%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLK(positive)

importance 1.55

days_since_ath(negative)

importance 1.45

hy_oas(negative)

importance 1.19

How to read this

Consensus 0.31 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-10.00%, +9.02%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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