Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

PLTR

245 historical chart-shape analogs of PLTR as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.00

weak

5d median

-0.58%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-6.82%, +4.42%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-14.79%, +14.04%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.72%

IQR

[-14.39%, +4.49%]

Hit-rate

38%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 1.17

opex_week=false(positive)

importance 0.84

spy_ret_60d(negative)

importance 0.70

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp uptrend

middle 50%: -0.3% to +20.1%

31 setups

+9.6%

73% up

Uptrend

middle 50%: -5.4% to +4.5%

106 setups

+0.8%

53% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -6.9% to +2.4%

125 setups

-2.3%

42% up

Choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -15.0% to -0.4%

22 setups

-7.3%

27% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.00 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into PLTR.

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