Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

META

281 historical chart-shape analogs of META as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.23

weak

5d median

-0.38%

hit-rate 47%

5d IQR

[-5.15%, +3.79%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-10.44%, +9.81%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.20%

IQR

[-8.19%, +4.72%]

Hit-rate

41%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLF(negative)

importance 1.73

sector_etf=XLU(positive)

importance 1.46

sector_etf=XLY(negative)

importance 0.99

How to read this

Consensus 0.23 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into META.

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