Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

META

252 historical chart-shape analogs of META as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.19

weak

5d median

+0.01%

hit-rate 50%

5d IQR

[-5.50%, +5.71%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-9.89%, +11.76%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.85%

IQR

[-6.46%, +9.60%]

Hit-rate

54%

Top 5-day features

opex_week=false(positive)

importance 1.22

credit_spread_state=normal(negative)

importance 1.07

news_count_5d(positive)

importance 1.00

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -1.5% to +11.3%

52 setups

+3.3%

71% up

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -5.1% to +5.7%

110 setups

+0.7%

53% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -7.3% to +3.7%

87 setups

-2.2%

40% up

Choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -10.8% to -1.7%

12 setups

-7.1%

17% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.19 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into META.

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