Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

META

278 historical chart-shape analogs of META as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.07

weak

5d median

-1.41%

hit-rate 42%

5d IQR

[-7.65%, +3.09%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-15.61%, +8.92%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-2.67%

IQR

[-9.18%, +5.55%]

Hit-rate

42%

Top 5-day features

broke_20d_range_high=false(negative)

importance 1.22

opex_week=false(negative)

importance 0.88

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 0.85

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -4.8% to +5.8%

116 setups

+1.6%

58% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.9% to +0.2%

133 setups

-4.3%

26% up

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -22.2% to -16.5%

3 setups

-21.7%

0% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.07 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into META.

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