Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-19

GS

283 historical chart-shape analogs of GS as of 2026-06-19, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.51

moderate

5d median

+1.08%

hit-rate 59%

5d IQR

[-1.78%, +3.02%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-5.16%, +5.46%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.72%

IQR

[-2.03%, +5.02%]

Hit-rate

61%

Top 5-day features

credit_spread_state=tight(positive)

importance 1.09

vix(negative)

importance 0.93

dollar_volume_z(negative)

importance 0.80

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: -1.8% to +8.6%

14 setups

+5.4%

73% up

Smooth sideways (+2.1%)

middle 50%: -0.1% to +3.7%

73 setups

+2.1%

73% up

Smooth sideways (+1.1%)

middle 50%: -1.1% to +3.0%

157 setups

+1.1%

61% up

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -5.6% to +0.8%

47 setups

-3.3%

28% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.51 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-5.16%, +5.46%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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