Cohort snapshot · 2026-05-07

GS

253 historical chart-shape analogs of GS as of 2026-05-07, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.48

moderate

5d median

+0.63%

hit-rate 57%

5d IQR

[-1.82%, +3.38%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-4.66%, +5.81%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+1.59%

IQR

[-2.46%, +4.47%]

Hit-rate

60%

Top 5-day features

sector_etf=XLY(negative)

importance 1.13

vix(negative)

importance 1.06

sector_etf=XLU(positive)

importance 0.96

How to read this

Consensus 0.48 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-4.66%, +5.81%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

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