Cohort snapshot · 2026-09-18

GS

291 historical chart-shape analogs of GS as of 2026-09-18, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.41

moderate

5d median

-0.38%

hit-rate 45%

5d IQR

[-2.97%, +1.76%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-6.57%, +5.66%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-1.13%

IQR

[-3.85%, +2.11%]

Hit-rate

42%

Top 5-day features

vol_regime=low(positive)

importance 1.27

has_news=false(positive)

importance 1.25

pct_off_52w_low(positive)

importance 1.08

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +0.9% to +8.6%

11 setups

+5.4%

73% up

Smooth sideways (+0.6%)

middle 50%: -1.5% to +2.5%

116 setups

+0.6%

57% up

Smooth sideways (-0.9%)

middle 50%: -3.0% to +1.0%

135 setups

-0.9%

37% up

Downtrend

middle 50%: -9.0% to +0.6%

22 setups

-2.6%

32% up

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How to read this

Consensus 0.41 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-6.57%, +5.66%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

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