Rarity radar · 2026-06-15

XOM just had its steepest 20-day drop since Apr 2026

XOM's 20-day move is at -11% — steepest 20-day drop, in the top 4.8% of its 10-year range. The last 18 times XOM reached this extreme, the median move over the next 15 trading days was +0.9% (61% finished higher).

20-day move

-11%

top 4.8% in 10yr

Next 15d median

+0.9%

61% higher

Last seen

Apr 2026

Read this honestly

This is a base rate from XOM's own history — what happened after prior visits to this extreme — not a prediction. 18 prior cases is a guide, not a guarantee. Extremes can persist far longer than they "should."

How Rarity Radar works

We measure XOM on several conditions (distance from its 200-day average, RSI, recent momentum) against its own 10-year history, then surface the single most extreme one and the empirical forward returns that followed prior visits to that extreme.

Go deeper

See XOM's full cohort of historical analogs and calibrated outcome distribution:

XOM cohort →Open in Chart Library

Other extremes on the radar

MSFT

% from 200-day avg -12%