Chart Library
Rarity radar · 2026-07-16

MSTR is the most extended below its 200-day average since Apr 2026

MSTR's % from 200-day avg is at -45%far below its 200-day average, in the top 6.7% of its 10-year range. The last 13 times MSTR reached this extreme, the median move over the next 15 trading days was -0.1% (46% finished higher).

MSTR is the most extended below its 200-day average since Apr 2026
% from 200-day avg
-45%
top 6.7% in 10yr
Next 15d median
-0.1%
46% higher
Last seen
Apr 2026
Read this honestly

This is a base rate from MSTR's own history — what happened after prior visits to this extreme — not a prediction. 13 prior cases is a guide, not a guarantee. Extremes can persist far longer than they "should."

How Rarity Radar works

We measure MSTR on several conditions (distance from its 200-day average, RSI, recent momentum) against its own 10-year history, then surface the single most extreme one and the empirical forward returns that followed prior visits to that extreme.

Go deeper

See MSTR's full cohort of historical analogs and calibrated outcome distribution:

MSTR cohort →Open in Chart Library

Other extremes on the radar

AAPL
RSI(14) 90
AMD
% from 200-day avg +70%
MU
RSI(14) 21
INTC
20-day move -17%
QCOM
20-day move -20%
DELL
% from 200-day avg +97%
SMCI
RSI(14) 24
PLTR
RSI(14) 82
CRWD
20-day move -70%
PANW
% from 200-day avg +71%
SNOW
RSI(14) 80
DDOG
% from 200-day avg +62%
Built 2026-07-17T12:31:36Z. Refreshed daily. Historical data only — not financial advice.