Rarity radar · 2026-08-19
AMD just had its steepest 20-day drop since Mar 2026
AMD's 20-day move is at -16% — steepest 20-day drop, in the top 7.6% of its 10-year range. The last 23 times AMD reached this extreme, the median move over the next 15 trading days was +5.3% (70% finished higher).

20-day move
-16%
top 7.6% in 10yr
Next 15d median
+5.3%
70% higher
Last seen
Mar 2026
Read this honestly
This is a base rate from AMD's own history — what happened after prior visits to this extreme — not a prediction. 23 prior cases is a guide, not a guarantee. Extremes can persist far longer than they "should."
How Rarity Radar works
We measure AMD on several conditions (distance from its 200-day average, RSI, recent momentum) against its own 10-year history, then surface the single most extreme one and the empirical forward returns that followed prior visits to that extreme.
Go deeper
See AMD's full cohort of historical analogs and calibrated outcome distribution:
AMD cohort →Open in Chart LibraryOther extremes on the radar
MSFT
20-day move +24%
META
% from 200-day avg -13%
DELL
% from 200-day avg +87%
PLTR
RSI(14) 79
CRWD
% from 200-day avg -55%
PANW
% from 200-day avg +60%
ABNB
% from 200-day avg +37%
MRNA
% from 200-day avg +266%
PFE
RSI(14) 84
Built 2026-08-20T12:30:06Z. Refreshed daily. Historical data only — not financial advice.